New Covid-19 vaccines could be needed in less than a year, epidemiologists warn

Epidemiologists from across 28 countries believe we may have less than a year before the SARS-CoV-2 virus mutates to the extent that first-generation vaccines are rendered ineffective or new vaccines are needed.

The warning comes from a survey of 77 epidemiologists, carried out by The People’s Vaccine Alliance, in which two-thirds believe that we may running out of time before new vaccines are required to combat SARS-CoV-2 mutations.

A third of those surveyed gave a timeframe of nine months or less and fewer than one in eight said they believed that mutations would never render the current vaccines ineffective.

The majority (88%) also said that persistent low vaccine coverage in many countries would make it more likely for vaccine resistant mutations to appear.

The People’s Vaccine Alliance warns that at the current vaccination rate, it is likely that only 10% of people in the majority of poor countries will be vaccinated in the next year. Currently, the daily vaccination rate across the globe is estimated at slightly below 15 million, but the majority of these are taking place in wealthier countries.

Now, three quarters of those surveyed are calling for the open sharing of technology and intellectual property (IP) so that manufacturers can boost Covid-19 vaccine supplies. Echoing this, the People’s Vaccine Alliance is asking for pharmaceutical companies working on Covid-19 vaccines to share their technology and IP with the World Health Organization Covid-19 Technology Access Pool.

Devi Sridhar, Professor of Global Public Health at the University of Edinburgh, said: “The more the virus circulates, the more likely it is that mutations and variants will emerge, which could make our current vaccines ineffective. At the same time, poor countries are being left behind without vaccines and basic medical supplies like oxygen. 

“As we've learned, viruses don't care about borders. We have to vaccinate as many people as possible, everywhere in the world, as quickly as possible. Why wait and watch instead of getting ahead of this?”

Covid-19 variants have been of concern for pharmaceutical developers for some time. Moderna has said it is looking at a revised version of its own vaccine targeting the B.1.351 variant, which was first identified in the Republic of South Africa. Studies show that Moderna and Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine are less effective against the South African strain compared to the UK variant.

Anna Marriott, Oxfam’s Health Policy manager, added: “In many rich nations, vaccinated people are starting to feel safer, but unless we vaccinate all nations, there is a huge risk that the protection offered by vaccines will be shattered by fresh mutations.

“This survey highlights that we need a people’s vaccine, not only to protect people in the world’s poorest countries, but to ensure that people all over the world who’ve already been vaccinated aren’t put at risk again.”