CPhI predicts the future of pharma

CPhI Worldwide has announced part ii of the 2016 CPhI Annual Report. The report is an analysis of the innovations and key trends in the pharma industry, produced through a series of opinions and articles by experts.

Part ii contains pieces by four experts, Gil Roth, Vivek Sharma, Dr Minzhang Chen and Ravi Limaye, who examine the implications on growth prospects and drag factors across the EU, China, India and the US.

The overall findings represent positive trends towards outsourcing and acquisitions. Contract manufacturers are adding specialist technologies from smaller companies and larger API-led firms are trying to merge or partner with finished product specialists of similar size.

The report depicts the market size and drivers for growth, particularly highlighting the unprecedented growth of the anti-cancer market. This market, the report states, is fuelling the High Potency Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients market, which is expected to reach $25.1 billion by 2023. Product classes such as ADCs, HPAPIs and biosimilars are also anticipated to see rapid growth in Western markets.

Biosimilars are also expected to grow steadily in China and India, in regards to FDA standards. An interesting feature of the report forecasts that Chinese biotech companies will try to partner with CDMOs based in western markets to bring future products to market.

President of the Pharma and Biopharma Outsourcing Association Gil Roth argues that key industry players are looking at how they can bring in new services and meet future drug development challenges. Relations in pharma are also changing with CDMOs being increasingly viewed as strategic partners, not service providers.

Roth predicts that the future will see contract providers taking more risks, but also getting greater potential profits as a result.

CEO at Piramal Enterprises, Vivek Sharma, echoes Roth’s perspective, predicting that CDMOs might consider risk sharing in exchange for a larger cut of commercial volumes. Overall he predicts an 80% market share of products for oncology will be undertaken in Europe and the USA by large CDMOs.

In  regards to the industry in China, CEO of STA Pharmaceutical, Dr. Minzhang Chen outlines a very positive future for CMOs and research companies. He states that in the next five years, a number of patented drugs will emerge from China for global patients. An increase in convergence between China FDA and FDA/EY standards is also expected.

This will result in Chinese CDMOs with facilities in the US and China playing a key role in bridging the two global markets. The goal is for companies outside of China to bring their products to China and for Chinese biomedical companies to bring their products to the US.

Ravi Limae, president marketing at Biocon, anticipates that biosimilars are going to have larger global significance in both western and emerging markets. He expects the market to grow, in the USA and Japan. He did however caution that much work is needed to standardise interchangeability and naming conventions if biosimilars are to have the same impact as small molecule generics have had in the last 25 years.