Insulin shortage puts millions at risk, study shows

In the next 12 years, half of those with type 2 diabetes won’t be able to receive potentially life-saving insulin unless access to the drug improves, new research shows.

A study published in the Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology journal estimates that the amount of insulin needed to effectively treat type 2 diabetes is set to rise by more than 20% over the next 12 years. The researchers developed a microsimulation of the global burden of type 2 diabetes from 2018 to 2013, estimating that around 40 million patients will be left without insulin unless improvements to cost and access are made.  

The situation is being made worse due to the fact there are only three major manufacturers of insulin: Novo Nordisk, Sanofi and Lilly. In the US in particular, the cost of insulin has soared over the past decade, nearly tripling in cost from 2002-2013.  Increased cost of the drug can limit access, putting patients at risk of complications including amputation, blindness and stroke.

Africa and Asia are the continents which will be hit worst by unmet insulin needs, if access remains at current levels.

Sanjay Basu, assistant professor of medicine at Stanford University and who led the study, said: “Despite the UN's commitment to treat noncommunicable diseases and ensure universal access to drugs for diabetes, across much of the world insulin is scarce and unnecessarily difficult for patients to access. Unless governments begin initiatives to make insulin available and affordable, then its use is always going to be far from optimal.”

The researchers have warned that new strategies must be adopted to make insulin more widely available and affordable.

The study, which used data representing over 60% of the global population with type 2 diabetes, estimates that the number of adults with type 2 diabetes is set to rise to 511 million in 2030. More so, China, India and the United States will represent over half of this figure. If universal global access was achieved, 79 million people would be given insulin. Currently, it's expected that only 38 million would receive the drug.

Executive director of Health Action International (HAI), which funded the study, said: “Governments should use this information to plan for growing need. By shedding light on the sheer numbers of people affected, we are once again reminded of the important role universal health coverage can play in improving lives. This is particularly pressing because, according to our data, the greatest need occurs where health systems are weak, and availability and affordability is poor.”