How accurate were the CPhI annual reports? Event organisers look back at predictions

CPhI Worldwide, organised by UBM, have announced the panel for the 2017 Annual Industry Report, which will represent the fifth edition. As such, a decision has been made to review the past five years’ reports to see how accurate the predictions were.

Predictions from the past half a decade have included advancement in quality-by-design (QbD), continuous processing, serialisation, green chemistry and a rise in R&D improvements, as well as a dramatic increase in FDA warning letters.

The latter, which was forewarned in 2013, was accurate with triple the number of FDA warning letters being distributed over the past few years — from 4,882 in 2012 to 14,590 in 2016, as stated in a press statement.

Another prediction from the first report was the anticipated boost in R&D and development cycles. Although there were increased within pharma in 2014 and 2015 this trend has dropped off again in 2016 and is anticipated to be similar this way.

Some of the other predictions that came true include PAT, QbD and serialisation, which have all become industry wide practices. Continuous processing has also been implemented in both big pharma and CDMOs for APIs and finished products, which was identified as a future trend. Additionally, more focus on green chemistry, route scouting and process improvements earlier in development to make less wasteful products was identified in the reports and have begun taking shape across the industry.

In the area of strategic pharma partnerships it was predicted that CMOs would grow in prominence with mega-mergers expected to increase in frequency. As reported by CPhI, this has probably been best highlighted by the acquisition of Patheon by Thermo Fisher. Additionally, there has been a lot of co-development deals made for the development and commercialisation of biologics and biosimilars.

However, some reports were a little amiss — expectations of a decrease in the number of biotechs and small companies entering the market as a result of stringent regulations, for example. Conversely, biotech has seen growth particularly in hot spots in the US and with newer hubs emerging, particularly in China.

“This year’s Annual Report features some of the industry’s most stellar names and pharmaceutical industry experts and we are extremely grateful for all their efforts,” said Orhan Caglayan, brand director — Europe, UBM. “It is a testament to their work and industry acumen that so many of their foresights five years on are beginning to take shape across industry. It also adds to the growing weight of evidence that the CPhI Annual Report is an essential document for anyone looking to stay ahead of market trends, explore new partnerships, opportunities and technologies, and to ultimately help advance the industry more quickly.”