Declining Demand for Covid-19 Vaccines: What’s Next for mRNA?

By Latika Mahajan, Assistant Manager, Life Sciences at The Smart Cube

Following the outbreak of Covid-19, the international race to create viable vaccines was on. While conducting their research, scientists discovered that messenger RNA (mRNA) could be used in the development of Covid-19 vaccines. Subsequently, this saw an increased focus amongst pharmaceutical and life sciences organisations on mRNA research, development, and production to treat the disease as the pandemic raged on.

However, now that the demand for Covid-19 vaccines is declining, the short-term outlook for the mRNA market is uncertain. Producers are set to have excess production capacity available, while overall sales are set to fall. Nevertheless, the market’s long-term outlook is far more positive.

mRNA’s long-term market outlook

The mRNA vaccines and therapeutics market is expected to exceed $68 billion by 2030, representing an annual growth rate of 8.8 per cent between 2023 and 2030 – indicating a strong long-term outlook for the mRNA market. This comes as major pharmaceutical firms are beginning to reapportion resources to discover and establish new mRNA-based therapies and vaccines capable of treating infectious diseases.

For instance, both Moderna and Sanofi are using mRNAs to create new vaccines for diseases such as flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), as well as therapeutics for oncology. Meanwhile, BioNTech is developing mRNA therapies for advanced R/R melanomas and metastatic non-small cell lung carcinomas.

As an ever-growing number of pharmaceutical and life sciences companies transform their mRNA development plans, focusing on using mRNAs to develop new vaccines and therapeutics, the nature of the market will undergo a significant transformation.

There is already evidence of this shift taking place, with advanced molecular therapy companies signing 117 new deals in the second quarter of 2023 alone. This includes Moderna investing in facilities across the world, including in Australia, Canada, and the UK, while earlier this year, Applied DNA acquired Spindle Biotech.

Although many of the vaccines and therapeutics currently under development remain a long way off being ready for public use, there has undoubtedly been a move towards a more diverse mRNA market landscape. This could disrupt existing vaccine and therapy portfolios, leading to a positive long-term outlook for the mRNA market.

Maximising today’s mRNA market opportunity without overlooking challenges

For pharmaceutical and life sciences firms wanting to take advantage of the mRNA market opportunity, one activity that is imperative for them to pursue is building partnerships with contract development and manufacturing organisations (CDMOs). As Covid-19 vaccine production continues slowing down, it’s highly probable that CDMOs with mRNA production capabilities will be driven to engage in new partnerships with pharmaceutical and life sciences companies throughout the next few years.

As capacity becomes available on a wider scale, organisations have an opportunity to produce mRNA vaccines and therapies cost-effectively, maximising their margins while driving growth.

What’s more, larger pharmaceutical and life sciences organisations should maximise this opportunity by acquiring smaller biotech firms with specialised product lines in the mRNA field. With the market anticipated to go through significant growth, companies have an opening of approximately two years to make acquisitions before the businesses they are targeting start to grow substantially.

Organisations that aren’t yet able to directly acquire new firms should explore mutually beneficial partnerships. By establishing new research and development collaborations, businesses with complementary requirements and skills can rapidly develop new vaccines and therapies, capable of reaching the market prior to major growth occurring.

Don’t ignore market challenges

However, as teams strive to capitalise on new use cases for mRNA, they must not overlook the persistent challenges that inhibit growth in the pharmaceutical and life sciences markets. Firstly, organisations need to ensure they continue to monitor governance and compliance regulations. Before being brought to market, new products need to undergo rigorous tests, checks and regulatory procedures. These steps need to remain a priority at each stage of the accelerated research and development process.

Secondly, it should be noted that the vaccines and therapies that are set to drive mRNA growth over the course of the next decade are still in their infancy. The cost to produce them can be sizable, and teams will have to closely keep track of their manufacturing processes to ensure they remain efficient. This will enable organisations to offer competitive final prices for their therapies.

Finally, it’s pivotal for organisations investing in mRNA manufacturing and production to continuously monitor the market and supply chain conditions as they develop. For instance, although the supply of the lipid nanoparticles needed to produce mRNA therapies – as well as the availability of the ultra-cold logistics required to relocate and accommodate them – is adequate at this present moment, that picture could rapidly change as the market continues evolving.

Opportunity on the horizon

There’s much to get excited about. As more producers look to engage in new partnerships with organisations – or in some instances acquire specialised firms – and production capabilities are widely available for a fair price, now is the perfect moment for pharmaceutical and life sciences businesses to take hold of the mRNA opportunity.