Merck should expect strong sales for two new HIV drugs, says GlobalData

After receiving approval for two HIV drugs, Delstrigo (doravirine/lamivudine/tenofovir disproxil fumarate) and Pifeltro (doravirine), Merck should be expecting strong sales but probably unlikely to be at blockbuster levels, according to senior pharma analyst at GlobalData.

The double-approval from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has come at a fortuitous time for the company as revealed by Thomas Moore from GlobalData: “This approval comes at a good time for Merck & Co, which will be looking to mitigate an anticipated drop in sales for its HIV portfolio due to an erosion of market share for the Isentress franchise due to competition from other drugs and the future launch of generics.”

However, Moore also estimated that the combined sales of the two new drugs will probably not match that of the highly successful Isentress. “[Despite this] they are still expected to be well received by physicians, aided by the inclusion of treatment-naïve patients in the FDA indication,” he added.

“A GlobalData report, PharmaPoint: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) – Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2025, forecasts the combined sales of these drugs to reach approximately $500 million across the *7MM by 2023. Of the two drugs, the fixed-dose combination therapy, Delstrigo, is expected to see the most success in terms of annual sales, and is forecast to have peak 7MM annual sales of $369 million in 2023, versus $144 million in 2025 for Pifeltro. As a fixed-dose combination therapy, Delstrigo provides a more convenient dosing regimen to HIV patients, who are nearly always prescribed three-drug cocktails to keep the disease suppressed.

“Merck have indicated that they will be pricing Delstrigo at $70 per day, while Pifeltro will be priced at $46 per day. This places Delstrigo at the lower end of three-drug combination therapies for HIV, which are typically priced at $70–80 per day. Merck will be hoping that this pricing strategy will give them a competitive edge over products from other companies in the HIV space, such as Gilead’s Genvoya and ViiV’s Triumeq, which are sold towards to top end of this price range.”