Evaluate, a provider of market insights for the pharmaceutical industry, has released its 2025 Preview report featuring updated forecasts for the biopharma market for 2025.
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The 2025 preview, drawn from Evaluate Pharma and Evaluate Omnium, projects that, while the broader market is expected to remain in recovery mode throughout the year, there are anticipated rallies in 2025.
Most notably, the sector is expected to see over 70 novel drug approvals and an $82 billion increase in pharmaceutical product sales. This growth, primarily driven by advancements in the obesity and oncology spaces, is also notably marked by the scope of drugs up for approval, including new treatments for cystic fibrosis, immunology therapies and new oncology modalities.
Success in the oncology space will continue and Merck & Co’s Keytruda will retain the top spot in 2025 – possibly for the final time - with sales of over $30bn. However, it is the incretin class that will lead the market in 2025. Out of the 10 projected best-selling drugs of 2025, four are GLP-1s. Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide, sold as Ozempic and Wegovy and Lilly’s tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro and Zepbound, are on track to generate more than $70bn in combined sales in 2025.
“Over the last year, it has become clear that GLP-1s are one of the most impactful drug mechanisms ever discovered, for both patients and markets,” said Daniel Chancellor, vice president of thought leadership at Norstella, Evaluate’s parent company. “The incretin space this year will be marked by increased dealmaking and pharma can’t afford to miss out on what is likely to be the most significant drug mechanism to be discovered."
The report highlights additional companies and potential drug launches poised to make an impact in 2025, alongside insight into why markets should expect increased deal-making activity and improved access to capital. Key findings include:
- The IPO market will begin to grow again, although slowly and cautiously, and most potential IPOs are likely to be in the US as European markets continue to lack specialist investors.
- Private investors are reasonably optimistic as they enter 2025, with areas such as antibody drug conjugates, radiopharmaceuticals, and immunology and inflammation joining the GLP-1s as hot areas.
- Though the new US administration’s plans are unclear, a M&A uptick is likely as big pharma boardrooms come under pressure to deliver long term growth.
“This industry has taken its time recuperating from the post-pandemic rock bottom of the last few years,” continued Chancellor. “But with more deal making, improved access to capital and the continued explosion of growth around GLP-1s and other key therapy areas, the outlook for 2025 is promising.”
Additional analysis is included in the full report which is available here and a webinar featuring discussion and insight from the report will take place on 23rd January.