Pharmapack Predictions 2025: the Good the Bad and…. the Donald 2.0

Pharmapack Europe & CPHI have outlined key trends for pharma in 2025, highlighting the return of funding liquidity—via increased VC investments and PE capital for M&A—alongside enhanced supply chain resilience as “The Good”. The ongoing uncertainty around the intentions and practical implications of the BIOSECURE ACT is “The Bad”, with Donald Trump’s presidential return once again “the Great Known Unknown”.

The predictions come ahead of this month’s Pharmapack, where pharma’s momentum from the latter half of 2024 is expected to continue with a new record attendance. In particular, the event has seen a rapid increase in start-up companies attending – more than doubling in the last 24-months – as European markets are expected to drive forward innovation in drug delivery and packaging in the next 12-months.

Amid uncertainties facing U.S. pharma companies, the industry’s strong fundamentals have fostered widespread optimism. Experts at CPHI and Pharmapack Europe predict a landmark year in 2025, driven by a biologics boom, robust pipelines, and expanding GLP-1 profits. Efforts to establish new manufacturing hubs and supply chains are accelerating, with outsourcing cemented as a key driver of drug discovery, development, and commercial supply.

Perhaps most significantly, while many industry analysts widely caution us to "expect the unexpected" with the second coming of a Donald Trump presidency, the market has responded with surprising optimism. There is even a measured "wait-and-see" attitude toward the controversial appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Remarkably, eight years after our initial New Year’s prediction release on a Trump presidency as the "great unknown", this 2.0 iteration has been met with a surprisingly composed response from the pharma sector. The takeaway? While changes are anticipated and the direction remains difficult to forecast, the industry appears confident that there will be more winners than losers, regardless of the path taken during the next administration.

In Europe, the Pharmapack Report identified Île-de-France as a growing MedTech innovation hub for 2025. The region, which will host Pharmapack Europe 2025 later this month, was highlighted as the ideal location for start-up device and MedTech companies, thanks to its combination of funding opportunities, availability of R&D staff and, crucially, a strong base of pharma manufacturing and packaging resources.

This is particularly significant for device development and filling, with the region expected to play a sizeable role in both biologic device design and contract filling. The ongoing demand for GLP-1 drugs is predicted to cause biotechs with clinical filling needs – such as oncology targets with smaller volumes – to face delays as GLP contracts hoover-up the majority of aseptic filling capacities. The result is that we will see biotechs widening supplier networks and potentially even big pharma searching for new partners for GLP-1s [especially with Catalent’s ongoing uncertainty]. Consequentially, contract and device filling is predicted to be a rapid growth area at Pharmapack.

Pharmapack experts point to the shortage of experienced aseptic fill-finish capacity, which inevitably means that medium and small pharma have to look at alternative supply options. The other driver is the generic GLP-1s entering the market this year, adding further resource pressure – particularly as what pharma needs is end-to-end capabilities in drug-device combinations, including assembly, and this is still rare among contract packaging CDMOs.

BIOSECURE’s practical implications will continue to evolve until the Bill is either passed [or dropped] in some form. However, the industry is already adjusting for the medium-term changes, with discovery chemistry services switching to both Europe and particularly Indian CROs. In contrast, development and commercial contracts are being more widely shared with opportunities abounding, particularly for those investing in advanced biologics manufacturing that lowers costs per gram.

The short term one year fall-out is likely to be a rapid increase in drug discovery conducted in India. What happens in the medium term with a Trump presidency and innovative drugs ‘made in the US’ will be intriguing, as potentially pharma and biotech opt to have some MAb plants in country.

Pharmapack Europe expects over 6000 attendees and over 370 exhibiting companies this year, with significant growth in early-stage companies participating. Its Start-Up Hub will host over 20 emerging companies, with increasing interest from German and Swiss executives seeking new development and licensing opportunities in device and packaging innovations.